Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorMcMeekin, Peter
dc.contributor.authorGray, Joanne
dc.contributor.authorFord, Gary A
dc.contributor.authorDuckett, Jay
dc.contributor.authorPrice, Christopher
dc.date.accessioned2019-11-06T11:51:59Z
dc.date.available2019-11-06T11:51:59Z
dc.date.issued2014-09
dc.identifier.citationMcMeekin, P. et al, 2014. A comparison of actual versus predicted emergency ambulance journey times using generic Geographic Information System software. Emergency Medicine Journal : EMJ, 31 (9), 758-762.en_US
dc.identifier.issn1472-0205
dc.identifier.issn1472-0213
dc.identifier.doi10.1136/emermed-2012-202246
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12417/410
dc.description.abstractStudy objective The planning of regional emergency medical services is aided by accurate prediction of urgent ambulance journey times, but it is unclear whether it is appropriate to use Geographical Information System (GIS) products designed for general traffic. We examined the accuracy of a commercially available generic GIS package when predicting emergency ambulance journey times under different population and temporal conditions. Methods We undertook a retrospective cohort study of emergency ambulance admissions to three emergency departments (ED) serving differing population distributions in northeast England (urban/suburban/rural). The transport time from scene to ED for all the highest priority dispatches between 1 October 2009 and 30 September 2010 was compared with predictions made by generic GIS software. Results For 10 156 emergency ambulance journeys, the mean prediction discrepancy between actual and predicted journey times across all EDs was an underprediction of 1.6 min (SD 4.9). Underprediction was statistically significant at all population densities, but unlikely to be of clinical significance. Ambulances in urban areas were able to exceed general traffic speed, whereas, the opposite effect was seen in suburban and rural road networks. There were minor effects due to travel outside the busiest traffic times (mean overprediction 0.8 min) and during winter months (mean underprediction 0.4 min). Conclusions It is reasonable to estimate emergency ambulance journey times using generic GIS software, but in order to avoid insufficient regional ambulance provision it would be necessary to make small adjustments because of the tendency towards systematic underprediction. https://emj.bmj.com/content/emermed/31/9/758.full.pdf This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/emermed-2012-202246
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.subjectEmergency Medical Servicesen_US
dc.subjectAmbulancesen_US
dc.subjectGeographic Mappingen_US
dc.subjectOrganisational Efficiencyen_US
dc.subjectTime Factorsen_US
dc.titleA comparison of actual versus predicted emergency ambulance journey times using generic Geographic Information System softwareen_US
dc.typeJournal Article/Review
dc.source.journaltitleEmergency Medicine Journalen_US
dcterms.dateAccepted2019-10-09
rioxxterms.versionNAen_US
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserveden_US
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2019-10-09
refterms.panelUnspecifieden_US
refterms.dateFirstOnline2013-06
html.description.abstractStudy objective The planning of regional emergency medical services is aided by accurate prediction of urgent ambulance journey times, but it is unclear whether it is appropriate to use Geographical Information System (GIS) products designed for general traffic. We examined the accuracy of a commercially available generic GIS package when predicting emergency ambulance journey times under different population and temporal conditions. Methods We undertook a retrospective cohort study of emergency ambulance admissions to three emergency departments (ED) serving differing population distributions in northeast England (urban/suburban/rural). The transport time from scene to ED for all the highest priority dispatches between 1 October 2009 and 30 September 2010 was compared with predictions made by generic GIS software. Results For 10 156 emergency ambulance journeys, the mean prediction discrepancy between actual and predicted journey times across all EDs was an underprediction of 1.6 min (SD 4.9). Underprediction was statistically significant at all population densities, but unlikely to be of clinical significance. Ambulances in urban areas were able to exceed general traffic speed, whereas, the opposite effect was seen in suburban and rural road networks. There were minor effects due to travel outside the busiest traffic times (mean overprediction 0.8 min) and during winter months (mean underprediction 0.4 min). Conclusions It is reasonable to estimate emergency ambulance journey times using generic GIS software, but in order to avoid insufficient regional ambulance provision it would be necessary to make small adjustments because of the tendency towards systematic underprediction. https://emj.bmj.com/content/emermed/31/9/758.full.pdf This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/emermed-2012-202246en_US


This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record