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    A comparison of actual versus predicted emergency ambulance journey times using generic Geographic Information System software

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    Author
    McMeekin, Peter
    Gray, Joanne
    Ford, Gary A
    Duckett, Jay
    Price, Christopher
    Keyword
    Emergency Medical Services
    Ambulances
    Geographic Mapping
    Organisational Efficiency
    Time Factors
    Journal title
    Emergency Medicine Journal
    
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    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12417/410
    DOI
    10.1136/emermed-2012-202246
    Abstract
    Study objective The planning of regional emergency medical services is aided by accurate prediction of urgent ambulance journey times, but it is unclear whether it is appropriate to use Geographical Information System (GIS) products designed for general traffic. We examined the accuracy of a commercially available generic GIS package when predicting emergency ambulance journey times under different population and temporal conditions. Methods We undertook a retrospective cohort study of emergency ambulance admissions to three emergency departments (ED) serving differing population distributions in northeast England (urban/suburban/rural). The transport time from scene to ED for all the highest priority dispatches between 1 October 2009 and 30 September 2010 was compared with predictions made by generic GIS software. Results For 10 156 emergency ambulance journeys, the mean prediction discrepancy between actual and predicted journey times across all EDs was an underprediction of 1.6 min (SD 4.9). Underprediction was statistically significant at all population densities, but unlikely to be of clinical significance. Ambulances in urban areas were able to exceed general traffic speed, whereas, the opposite effect was seen in suburban and rural road networks. There were minor effects due to travel outside the busiest traffic times (mean overprediction 0.8 min) and during winter months (mean underprediction 0.4 min). Conclusions It is reasonable to estimate emergency ambulance journey times using generic GIS software, but in order to avoid insufficient regional ambulance provision it would be necessary to make small adjustments because of the tendency towards systematic underprediction. https://emj.bmj.com/content/emermed/31/9/758.full.pdf This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/emermed-2012-202246
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1136/emermed-2012-202246
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    Publications - North East Ambulance Service

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